One of the discussion points was from David’s Substack. Subscribe HERE.
R.T. is on a well pad, and we got to see one of his rig hands, and they grow them big out in West Texas. The first topic was the EIA reports and their forecasts vs. accuracy.
David is a rockstar, as usual, looking at a possible 60 to 90 days in $100 oil and Sasquatian power in Canada. The wind energy failed and actually went to negative energy to try and defrost the wind turbines.
Stu brings up some great points for the first time. – According to the EIA standards, to hit net zero by 2050, we need to build 995,000 wind turbines, an average of 34,000, and we have only made a maximum number of 5,680.
We have a blast talking energy, and we want to hear any questions you may have.
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
02:57 – IAEA the International Energy Agency
05:35 – Talks about UN banning accounts
(Twitter)
8:22- Talks about Saskatchewan
11:00 -Electric Prices
14:40- renewable energy (fossil fuels)
16:03- Talks about recording of Representative Tom McClintock
17:23- Talks about describes the amount of metals of Single Tesla Battery
18:35- Talks about West Texas road replaced
18:50- Combustion in Electric
21:13- Natural Gas price
26:02 – Outro
With 3 unique personalities, backgrounds, and one horrible team sense of humor, it makes for fun talks around the energy markets.
David Blackmon is a Forbes author and currently writes Energy Absurdities of the Day. He has several active podcasts with ….. His industry leadership is evident, but a dry, calm way of expressing himself adds a different twist.
R.T. Trevillon is the podcast host of The Crude Truth filmed in Fort Worth Texas and runs an oil and gas E&P company. Pecos Country Operating has been in business for ….years and has a constant commitment to all of their stakeholders and is actively working in this oil and gas market.
Stu Turley is the co-podcast host of the Energy News Beat podcast. While Stu is a legend in his own mind,
Other Sandstone Media Energy Podcasts – Check them out! Sponsorships are available, or get your own produced by Sandstone Media.
David Blackmon LinkedIn
The Crude Truth with Rey Trevino
Rey Trevino LinkedIn
Energy Transition Weekly Conversation
David Blackmon LinkedIn
Irina Slav LinkedIn
Armando Cavanha LinkedIn
If you have any questions, please reach out to us. We want to answer all questions, and if you have what it takes to be a podcast host and you want your show reach out.
Also, sponsor slots are available. There is excellent reach with the four podcasts.
David Blackmon LinkedIn
The Crude Truth with Rey Trevino
Rey Trevino LinkedIn
Stu Turley LinkedIn
Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Stuart Turley: [00:00:13] Hey, guys. Welcome today to today’s podcast of the three podcasters walk into a bar. Ever had that uncle that just made you cringe when he said these? I got a joke about these three guys walking into a bar. Well, I got the two other guys. Three of us are podcasters, So there you go. [00:00:32][18.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:33] My name’s Drew Turley, president, CEO, Sandstone Group. My podcast is the Energy News Beat, and I get the pleasure of introducing David Blackmon. The David Blackmon. The one and only David Blackmon. Look at him. He’s waving over there and he is a Forbes contributing author. He has to podcast the Energy Question and Energy Transition International Virgin. Welcome, David. Thank you. [00:01:00][27.5]
David Blackman: [00:01:01] Hey, thank you, man. It’s a beautiful day in Texas, isn’t it? [00:01:04][3.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:05] Oh, it is. Normally, I say it’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood on mine. But then again, I’m old enough to remember that. And then we have The RT. Mr. Trevino is actually out on a well site. He’s on location. This is only the second day this year he’s worked, and he’s out there having a safety briefing on the tailgate. He’s got a tailgate meeting going on and as well going on there. And he’s got a podcast named The Crude Truth, our RT welcome. And we’re glad you’re working today. [00:01:41][35.7]
Ray Travino: [00:01:42] Oh, thank you, guys. There’s always a hello out there to everybody. And yeah, so I’m out here in North Texas on some of our leases. We’re preparing for some visits and also preparing for another bout of cold weather here in the great state. [00:01:55][13.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:57] So before we got started, our RT you showed us some of your rig hands around there. He was huge. [00:02:05][8.1]
Ray Travino: [00:02:08] That was Jeremy Pedro. Yes, I think he’s six foot five and he’s one of the small ones out here. So there’s a lot of me potatoes out here. Whenever I’m standing next to those guys are. I don’t feel quite as tall as I normally do. I can tell you that. [00:02:22][14.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:22] You know, we were talking. Your head was still bigger than he is today. [00:02:29][6.6]
Ray Travino: [00:02:29] I’ll get to my place of business. I have a big head. As with so much knowledge out here in North Texas and all these guys out here, it just what they know is it really, really is awesome. So I make sure I have the best people out here I always work it with. So. So I’ve f I have a big head, I guarantee it’ll be brought back down to you. [00:02:48][19.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:49] But hey, you were talking about a main story. You were wanting a question. What was your thought on that already? [00:02:54][5.5]
Ray Travino: [00:02:55] Oh, yeah. No, I was reading another report the other day about how the IAEA the International Energy Agency is speculating they are predicting that we’re going to be producing about half a million barrels less this year in 2023. [00:03:12][17.0]
Ray Travino: [00:03:14] And then yet they’re expecting the demand to go up. I think it’s almost a billion barrels a day this year 2023. And then they also then are telling us that, you know Oil is going to be below 90 this year for an average of 2023. [00:03:30][15.8]
Ray Travino: [00:03:31] And again, I just don’t see how would you go to Economics 101 as a freshman in high school or a freshman in college? It’s it’s the same material either place, freshman or English one. Our economy 101 that supply and demand. [00:03:46][15.3]
Ray Travino: [00:03:46] That just does not jive with the fact that how are we going to have more demand if the price is going to be lower? So I kind of wanted to touch on that this morning to what you guys were thinking about this IEA for. [00:03:57][10.9]
David Blackman: [00:03:59] Well, it’s good. Those those things do not compute. Obviously, if you if you have demand rise by I think they said 900,000 barrels a day was their latest prediction and supply is going to increase by an average of half a million barrels a day. [00:04:16][17.4]
David Blackman: [00:04:17] That means the product is going to become more scarce. And whenever a product becomes any product becomes increasingly scarce, the price goes up, not down. So if the IEA volume projections are right, its price projections are wrong. [00:04:33][16.0]
David Blackman: [00:04:34] And it’s as simple as that. And I frankly think their price projections are wrong. I think their volume product projections are probably, you know, fairly reasonable. But in that event, if those things happen, then the price is going up. [00:04:49][15.8]
David Blackman: [00:04:50] And I think I agree that there’s every reason to think the price will go up between now and May, June, July, when summer driving season kicks in. And we could even see $100 oil again in the next 60 to 90 days. So, you know, as usual, the IEA isn’t thinking real logically and that unfortunately, as is a habit of that organization. [00:05:15][24.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:16] Did you call the IEA a political hack organization? [00:05:20][3.8]
David Blackman: [00:05:21] Well, I was nicer than that. I did not say that they entirely said that, but I might have been speaking digitally. [00:05:29][8.8]
Ray Travino: [00:05:30] Was there because they are a hack is what I heard. [00:05:32][2.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:35] Over the weekend I found out that I have been shadow banned on Twitter, so I opened up for new accounts and I’ve also been banned by the U.N., which is absolutely a badge of honor. So here I am. I’m about to get you guys blank banned as well to so. [00:05:54][18.9]
David Blackman: [00:05:57] Boy, if the UN’s after you, you better hide out in that cabin up in Oklahoma State. [00:06:01][3.7]
Ray Travino: [00:06:02] Yeah. All right. [00:06:03][0.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:03] I can reach out to. [00:06:04][1.2]
Ray Travino: [00:06:05] Ask you, you know. Yeah. They said they found one right there at the intersection of Maine and Avenue B, right there in Saskatchewan, Oklahoma. It’s the one with the fake door. But that undisclosed location in Saskatchewan, Oklahoma. [00:06:20][14.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:21] Yes, that’s it, Marty. Yeah, right. Anyway, no, the fun thing about being in a zombie apocalypse bunker, you know, it’s not a problem. If the U.N. wants to stop by, they can die. [00:06:37][16.2]
Ray Travino: [00:06:38] Wait, wait, wait, wait. No, hold on. I want to get back to this for Twitter sake real quick. Like I barely have what called the crude underscore truth. Okay. That’s my Twitter account. I’ll try to do a little self-promoter, try to get a little bit more out there. I barely have time for that. Let’s do how do you have time for new accounts on Twitter? Like, I mean, how does that work? Me and David each have what. [00:07:02][23.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:03] I have my employees manage my accounts. [00:07:06][2.3]
Ray Travino: [00:07:06] Oh, then I may need to get some help with that. [00:07:12][5.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:13] I have the greatest employees on the planet. [00:07:16][2.6]
Ray Travino: [00:07:17] And they are great. [00:07:18][0.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:19] You bring up a great question when you can ask any of them. What’s their number one job? Yeah, eat me from looking stupid and they’ve got a full time job. [00:07:29][10.3]
David Blackman: [00:07:32] That’s a big lift. [00:07:33][0.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:34] That’s interesting. [00:07:34][0.3]
Ray Travino: [00:07:37] In fact, I heard. I heard you try to talk to Jeremy Kudrow because he knows he needs that more strength to keep the world, to keep them from looking more stupid. So. [00:07:45][8.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:47] You know, hey, a man’s got to do. You know, I pay them big money just to keep me from being stupid. [00:07:52][5.0]
Ray Travino: [00:07:53] Oh, there is. [00:07:55][1.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:55] I better not let my wife hear this podcast because she knows. [00:07:58][2.5]
Ray Travino: [00:07:59] Yeah, but you don’t get that. [00:08:00][1.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:01] David. Your energy absurdity of the day was a classic. I mean, I’m sorry. You know, I first I was reading this and I thought it was something about Bigfoot, and instantly I thought it was absolutely wonderful. I’m over here trying to go to your story but it was not Sasquatch. It was Saskatchewan as you were thinking. [00:08:24][22.8]
David Blackmon: [00:08:25] Well, contrary to what Artie just said a minute ago, Saskatchewan is not in Oklahoma. It’s actually a province in Canada. And a reader named Brian’s in Chirk, who has a website called PipelineOnline.CA, which has a wealth of information about the energy situation up in Canada, sent me data put out by the manager of the Saskatchewan Power grid called Saskpower that that tells an interesting story about the wind wind energy sector in Saskatchewan last week. So that’s that’s another liberal Saskatchewan was having a winter storm, Icy conditions, very cold temperatures and all four of the five days during the week. [00:09:18][53.0]
David Blackmon: [00:09:19] Last week, the wind energy generation on the grid approached zero for four straight days. And on two of those days, Saskpower actually recorded negative numbers for wind generation on the grid. And how do you get to a negative number for wind is that they didn’t generate anywhere anything but all the all the turbines were apparently frozen up, but it took it required one megawatt of power on the grid to thaw out the generators so that they. [00:09:58][39.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:59] Could actually turn. [00:09:59][0.5]
David Blackmon: [00:10:00] That well. They recorded negative for two straight days in Saskatchewan. And and so what’s the moral of this story? Well, the moral of this story is that. When power fails quite often, but it fails most miserably at the worst possible time, which is during winter storms and extreme summer heat. [00:10:24][23.4]
David Blackman: [00:10:25] And if you think we’re going to be able to replace reliable 24 hour a day generation capacity powered by natural gas, coal and nuclear, with intermittent energy coming from these windmills, you’re living in a fantasy world and we have to stop living in a fantasy world and start dealing with the world as it is, or we’re all going to end up very soon without enough energy to heat our homes in the winter. So that’s my tale for today. [00:10:58][33.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:00] Speaking of that, well, I got the interview, Don Diers, and we released it. Let me tell you just a little bit of facts. In average Electric prices percent’s kilowatt hour in August of your average of 2003. And if you’ll I’ll have this in the show notes, this chart and RT if you can’t read, I’ll transcribe it on a audio book for you. Okay?. [00:11:33][32.2]
Ray Travino: [00:11:34] As long as it got about as long as the audio book has. [00:11:36][2.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:39] Okay. So ERCOT, ERCOT was $0.09, 9.1 $0.06 in 2003, in 2019 it was 11.87 or 30% increase in power. And the amount of wind and solar added to the grid is 100% attributable to the increase in price. Anybody want to say that it’s saving money in the lower cost? [00:12:10][30.9]
Ray Travino: [00:12:13] I still have got for any reason I have not ran any positive numbers on anything as far as it this is not really on the 12th, let alone on the cost on invested in wind turbines to put up. I haven’t found any cost there so you know, save or you know. [00:12:32][19.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:32] Let me go here. [00:12:33][0.4]
Ray Travino: [00:12:33] Okay. Okay. Okay, Let’s get started. [00:12:39][5.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:40] And this was cool. I mean, he’s a cool dude, but I didn’t know this. And if we were going to go to 100% net zero by 2030, then none or 2050, the number of wind turbines rated at 2.5 megawatts to achieve net zero is 995,141. You think there’s enough children in the world in the Congo to build enough materials for the ground buildings? Yeah, let’s do it anyway. [00:13:15][35.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:16] Okay. So there are 28 years between 2022 and 2050. So the average number they have to build is 35,000 for 540. He gets a crayon, anyone’s good. He goes, The biggest year we’ve ever had was 5680. [00:13:34][18.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:36] So let’s do another crayon math here that I’m working on. And the average lifespan of those is eight years now between the maintenance fees going up and becoming profitable. So my owes you Oklahoma State math. Joe, we’re kind of going we’re going to need about 250,000 more anyway. That’s right. You guys know your crazy numbers. [00:14:03][26.3]
David Blackmon: [00:14:04] There’s enough metals in the world to to to build that many of those turbines. That’s crazy. [00:14:10][6.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:11] Numbers. [00:14:11][0.0]
Ray Travino: [00:14:11] It’s not. And, you know, I can’t wait for the day for us to really kind of, you know, disagree on some things here there. I think the biggest disagreement right now is the fact that I think we’ll average 100 hour oil is day to day average of $90 oil. You know, but so I want to go back just a great is that over the weekend, David, you put out that great YouTube video that representative from California. [00:14:38][26.3]
David Blackmon: [00:14:39] Oh, yeah, that’s fantastic. [00:14:39][0.7]
Ray Travino: [00:14:40] Really breaking down the renewables and how it’s going to take a lot of fossil fuel as a drag. And I think that’s a bad word. A lot of, you know, oil and natural gas to, you know, create all of that renewable energy. [00:14:54][14.1]
Ray Travino: [00:14:55] But then also what you said and I think I recorded it this morning on a on a poster we give for episode 12, which is that with oil, when Mother Nature is at its worst, renewables will fail every time giving back to the society. [00:15:11][16.0]
Ray Travino: [00:15:13] That it’s like they are something that they cannot handle Mother Nature. And I think a prime example is, you know, when you get out there on offshore drilling rigs, you see the waves and storms. But those rigs are still standing there. [00:15:29][15.9]
Ray Travino: [00:15:30] They may not be on producing, but they are they’re standing proud and doing what they need to do. During the great, beautiful Mother Nature. Well, yet when we have these storms, you know, these wind turbines fail and you can’t do that. So so I think right there, it’s just something great. So I’m looking forward to, though, listening to the of there. [00:15:51][21.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:51] STEWART Oh, yeah. And I’m also forwarding that you guys are also podcast host Xeni is name so you know. [00:16:01][9.4]
David Blackmon: [00:16:03] Your deal so you know that video our team was talking about was recorded. It was a recording of Representative Tom McClintock, a Republican from California, who was questioning a witness at a recent hearing about this witness was testifying against mining permitting mines for metals in the United States. And this this witness also was advocating for electric vehicles. And the gist of the video, which can be found at my substack the address is Blackmon dot substack dot com. Be there, be square. [00:16:46][43.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:16:48] Say it again, David, because that is one of the best sub stacks out there. [00:16:52][3.1]
David Blackmon: [00:16:53] Blackmon.substack.com, Please please subscribe. You can subscribe for free and get some of the content. You can pay me money to get the rest. Anyway, so here’s, it’s got a little graphic that I found that that describes the amount of metals that go into a single Tesla battery. And I want people to understand this £20 this is one Tesla battery requires £25 of lithium, £60 of nickel, £44 of manganese, £30 of cobalt, £200 of copper, £400 of aluminum, steel and plastic. Okay, that’s one Tesla battery. [00:17:38][45.5]
David Blackman: [00:17:40] Now you multiply that by millions, millions literally of cars, of electric vehicles that the climate alarmists want to put on the road over the next ten years. And you can see the the incredible amount of metal we’re going to have to have where you can’t have those metals without mining for it. Okay, folks, that’s the cost. You’re going to have a lot of news strip mines here in the United States and all over the world for car for loan. You’re going to need 330 new strip mines by 2033. Okay. So this is a big deal. And it’s what it’s the cost of electric vehicles that nobody wants to talk about. But that’s what it is. And you can’t have one without the other. You just can’t. [00:18:27][47.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:28] Hey, Artie, because you’re big head. I’m going to talk about this one here for just a quick sec. And that’s there’s two things RT you’re out in West Texas right now and in West Texas. Those roads are tough because all the trucks across west works to west Texas are just brutal. Think about how much money and oil is going to be required to replace roads with that extra heaviness going on. Think about that one. [00:18:57][29.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:58] The other one that got me is the article I read this morning was a Hummer in the internal combustion. Combustion was six times whatever the number is. And then a a electric was nine tons. I mean, whatever the number was, that was three it times in order to dry, they in turn will come I mean a heavy So that’s one of the reasons I believe was I read it was I read this article. I think I was getting this from, you know, she’s smart. Go figure. [00:19:31][33.4]
David Blackmon: [00:19:32] They’re very heavy cars. [00:19:32][0.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:19:34] And and I’m sitting here going to go, would you put me in one? And the road boasts Always smokes. [00:19:41][6.8]
Ray Travino: [00:19:44] David, I would definitely appreciated that. That chart you just spoke of, I think either put that one out there, I would might even put that we’re not there on a because hey man, that’s a crude truth right there. What kind of a strategy it takes to put in those tests? I mean. [00:20:00][15.3]
David Blackmon: [00:20:00] I need to put it in on a tweet, I guess. Get it out there. [00:20:04][3.5]
Ray Travino: [00:20:04] But put it out there. And because I mean, that that’s really telling dummy. Here I am out here is just like. Millions of other oil and gas guys. Workers are trying to produce what we can produce for us, the American people. Because you know what? We still need it for the Roadster’s, right? We still need, you know, petroleum products to build the roads, the infrastructure here in America with this great, you know, inflation reduction Act with all the infrastructure that was probably adaptable to. [00:20:34][30.3]
Ray Travino: [00:20:36] So I just think that it’s, you know, getting back to even talking about that YouTube video that we are living in, once again, you’ll say such an upside down. Again, I am not against solar and I’m not against the grid. I think they have their place. However, we need reliable freakin energy. And right now that comes from natural gas, oil and coal. And with us being in the winter time, we need to be able to keep our homes and cook food to keep ourselves warm. And that’s just the important part. [00:21:12][36.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:21:13] At great points, Artie. David, I got a question for you because and RT I’m a little confused on natural gas. What do you guys think about natural gas prices right now? I’m like, I feel like scooby doo. [00:21:27][13.3]
David Blackmon: [00:21:28] We’ve got an awful lot of natural gas. We got so much of it. It’s overwhelming the demand for it. Even even with all the LNG demand coming from Europe, we we have such a richness that abundance of natural gas in the United States. It’s truly incredible what’s in these shale plays. It’s amazing. [00:21:45][17.4]
Ray Travino: [00:21:46] So it’s awesome. I mean, you know, here you’ve got everybody back here, you know, got a lot of wells working and putting them back on line here in the Barnett. And so it’s just awesome to see because we are the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. And so for for all of us to be back out here is great for a lot of guys to be back at work. It and it’s a great day because what are we trading at today we’re less than $4, correct? [00:22:11][25.2]
David Blackmon: [00:22:12] Yeah. 335 I think. Yeah. [00:22:14][1.7]
Ray Travino: [00:22:14] 35 And so I think they’ve really brought back down to reality a little bit. But after they could get back up five, that’s always better now. But hey, that’s just three of the investment this week. [00:22:26][11.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:22:26] We got about five more minutes here, but I’m going to tell you a football joke and then I’m going to turn it around. You guys were the last one back in high school a bazillion year. Moses and I played high school together in a high school football, but I came around the corner one day and Coach Kramer absolutely was laying on the locker room floor laughing. [00:22:47][20.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:22:48] I’ve never seen coach coaches have their own length means run 30 laps and and he was laughing so hard and we had one of the the football players was huge, but his head was so big that he tried to special order a helmet from right out right now sent the box in and I’m right there is the coaches were opening it up and there’s a note in there for right now and it said if the helmet does not fit, use the box. So our t if your hardhat does not fit, use the box that it came up. [00:23:37][48.9]
Ray Travino: [00:23:39] I thought your joke was going to be about my Dallas Cowboys last night. But no, but but that was a good one right there. Now you state our team. [00:23:52][13.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:23:52] Give us your last word. No, Put your head in the box. [00:23:54][2.1]
Ray Travino: [00:23:55] Oh, man. No, just everybody stay safe out there. Follow the rules. And regulations are always out there. That’s for the great state of Texas. United States has had a really tradition over the railroad years in Texas if we want to stay safe. But looking forward to another great week, I think we’re going to get a little bit more cold here in Texas. But everybody be ready for that. But thank you, guys, as always in there. Thank you to our listeners off the. [00:24:20][25.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:21] Air real quick. Watch the how do they get a hold of you? [00:24:25][3.3]
Ray Travino: [00:24:26] Oh, yeah, they can definitely reach me. You know, I got my leaked in there, which is very tricky. The third you could also see finally how the WWw.TheCrudeTruth.com And you can reach me there as well. And they’ll be on the lookout for a new episode with another big operator out of Texas this week on the crew. True. [00:24:44][17.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:45] Nice and well done, Mr. Blackmon. Coming around the corner. What do you after the last word? [00:24:50][5.0]
David Blackmon: [00:24:51] Well, I guess for my fellow Dallas Cowboy fans, you have my condolences. Pray for a different quarterback somehow for next season. And, you know, be careful out there. Try to stay warm. Apparently, we’re going to have another big cold front here in a week or two. And it’s going to get pretty, pretty. Nasty again. So everybody take care of yourselves and your family and we’ll see you next time. [00:25:17][25.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:25:18] That sounds great. And I’ll have your contact information in the show notes and we will have that chart. And are you picking your nose out? [00:25:26][8.2]
Ray Travino: [00:25:27] No, no, I wanted I wanted to say just one more thing real quick. And I met you last week at the show. For anybody that’s going to day, please be there Wednesday morning for David Blackmon and don’t share it. We’ll be speaking and I’ll probably say one more time next week, but it’ll be Wednesday morning, next week about area that will be speaking today. Dave I got to try to advertise for Dave and just advertising for Dave and I’m looking very much forward to that to their discussion next week. [00:25:56][29.0]
David Blackmon: [00:25:56] So I should be fine. Yeah, hopefully, hopefully I won’t say anything too stupid. [00:26:00][3.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:26:02] You will be my job. Guys I call feel stupid, so you know. Hey guys, Thank you for our fans. Hey, I’ll tell you what. And I’d like to say thank you to my compadres here. Our numbers are blown through the roof on lessons, so thank you all very much. And subscribe like and pass this word along to your friends, Torkelson. [00:26:02][0.0]